The night’s biggest number: Democratic turnout

In a night full of numbers, the most important statistic is 2 to 1 — Democratic turnout over Republican turnout.  In all honesty, I thought the Democrats saturated the electorate in 2004 and got out every single person who could potentially caucus.  I was wrong by about half, as Democratic turnout nearly doubled to almost 240,000.  The Republicans, however, only increased by about a third from eight years ago. 

Those margins will be reflected in voter registration statistics soon, and the fresh lists of new caucus-goers give the Democrats an organizational advantage going into the fall.  Most of all, it’s a strong sign that Democrats are enthusiastic about their candidate and their chances.

Here’s some other numbers that tell part of tonight’s story:657 – Attendance at the six-precinct Coralville Republican “super caucus.”

762 – Democratic attendance in Coralville precinct 6 alone.  That was the biggest Democratic precinct in Johnson County; several precincts were reporting turnouts in the 500s and 600s, with at least three over 700.

57% – Percentage of Democrats under 30 who caucused for Obama.  Hillary Clinton won 45% of those over 65.

47 cents – Obama’s midnight, post-results price on the Iowa Electronic Markets, indicating that investors give him a 47 percent chance at the nomination.  That’s up from 28 cents yesterday.  Clinton dropped from 59 cents to 51.  John McCain is leading the Republican field at 30 cents.

9% – Victory margin for Mike Huckabee, much more than expected.  The flurry of negative anonymous e-mails and goofy revelations seemed only to strengthen the resolve of Huckabee’s supporters, and the late resurgence of John McCain driven by newspaper endorsements helped widen the gap. 

3.5% – Rudy Giuliani’s sixth-place showing.  We all knew he wasn’t trying hard, but 3.5% makes Fred Thompson look like the Hardest Working Man In Show Business.  Rudy was closer to no-show Duncan Hunter than to fifth-place Ron Paul.

50:50 – Odds that Fred Thompson will quit because he doesn’t feel like doing the New Hampshire debate.

298 – Ron Paul voters in Jefferson County, the only county won by someone other than Huckabee or Romney.  Jefferson County often produces unusual results, like the 2004 near-win for Kucinich on the Democratic side.

1 – Chris Dodd delegate in the whole state, in Pottawatamie County.

Minus 2 – Goodbye, Chris Dodd and Joe Biden.  Catching a brief glimpse of the Biden announcement, it seemed Jill Biden was more saddened by the end than the candidate.  He’s up for re-election in Delaware this fall.  Daily Kos was praising Dodd earlier in the day and suggesting he’d make a good replacement for Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid.  Silence from Team Richardson tonight.

0 – Hillary Clinton delegates in Iowa City Precincts 3, 5, 11, 19, 20, and 21.  Clinton was non-viable in the two University of Iowa dorm precincts (3 and 5) student-dominated 11, 19, and 20, and in 21 with a large student population.  The “students shouldn’t caucus” flap may not have helped.  Turnout was down from in Precinct 5 from 320 in 2004 to 134 this year, but University Democrats chair Atul Nakhasi was pleased with the mid-break attendance.  In Precinct 3, 208 showed up, “a little less but not much” than 2004, said Nick Johnson, the law professor who’s long chaired his precinct.

1 – Effective ad as John Edwards carried Jasper County.  He spoke often of the Maytag plant closing in Newton, and his final ad consisted almost entirely of a laid-off Maytag worker speaking, with Edwards saying nothing more than the legal disclaimer.  Edwards had another strong cluster of support in southern Iowa, while Clinton won the western border and a chunk of north-central Iowa, and Obama took eastern and most of central Iowa.

20 years – The most interesting pronouncement I heard on caucus night.  “20 years ago was when this all began,” said an Obama supporter who was a veteran of the 1988 Jesse Jackson campaign.  The rap on the Iowa caucuses has always been that Iowa is “not diverse enough,” code for “95% white.”  But maybe, just as overwhelmingly Protestant West Virginia gave Catholic John Kennedy a boost in 1960, Iowa Democrats have listened to those  back of the hall murmurs — “I just don’t know if people are ready” — and answered them tonight.