Wednesday was a difficult day for The American Independent News Network, which is the larger entity that operates The Iowa Independent. Our chief executive and founder announced two of our sister sites would close and their content would be moved to The American Independent.
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The story gets significantly more complicated, as more evidence of a two-way deal in select counties or precincts emerges. Click here for the updated story.
[Exclusive] Gov. Bill Richardson’s campaign is expected to direct its supporters to caucus for Sen. Barack Obama in the second round of voting at Thursday’s caucuses in precincts where he is not viable. Two sources familiar with the plan told Iowa Independent that the New Mexico governor’s organizers have been instructed to direct supporters to Obama in the places where they have not reached the 15 percent threshold for viability.
Richardson, whose poll numbers in Iowa have hovered near 10 percent since June, may need a solid fourth-place finish in the caucuses to continue his campaign. And he is best served by directing support away from former Sen. John Edwards, who consistently polls between him and the two national front-runners, Obama and Sen. Hillary Clinton, in national and early state polls.
But Richardson’s modest gains from diverting second-choice support away from Edwards may be eclipsed by Obama’s potential success on caucus night, should everything go as planned. If Richardson’s field organization manages to direct a significant number of supporters to Obama, it could be enough to win him the Iowa caucuses.
And if Edwards loses a large block of second-round voters, a group he seems to be relying on to break in his direction, it could irreparably damage his campaign.
Richardson would prefer an Obama victory over Clinton because a Clinton victory could end the campaign before New Hampshire voters even head to the polls. And if Edwards’s numbers look weak, Richardson could head to New Hampshire as the best alternative to the top two contenders for the Democratic nomination.
Still, sources caution that plans can always change, and once the doors lock Thursday evening, anything can happen. Whether the Richardson campaign’s strategy is implemented on the ground remains an open question and, because this directive is not expected to be confirmed publicly, it will be difficult to prove.[Ed. note: For about ten minutes when this story was first published, it asserted that there was a mutual agreement between the Richardson and Obama campaigns to swap supporters in precincts where one was not viable. This, it turns out, resulted from a misunderstanding that has since been cleared up. There is no deal between the two campaigns; there is only a strategic decision -- one which makes complete sense -- on the part of the Richardson campaign about where to direct its supporters if their group is not viable in certain precincts.]
Update: Joaquin Guerra, Richardson’s national Online Director, denies that any plans are in place to direct supporters to Obama on the second round of voting. Still, our sources remain sure of what they told us, and we are confident that they do not carry ulterior motives that would cause them to lie.
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