Top Stories

Open letter to readers: Today and tomorrow

By Lynda Waddington | 11.17.11

Wednesday was a difficult day for The American Independent News Network, which is the larger entity that operates The Iowa Independent. Our chief executive and founder announced two of our sister sites would close and their content would be moved to The American Independent.

ACS lockout continues; plan emerges to repeal sugar protections

crystal_sugar_80
By Virginia Chamlee | 11.15.11

A recently introduced bill could have far-reaching impact on the U.S. sugar industry, including American Crystal Sugar, a farmer-owned cooperative that locked out 1,300 Midwest workers on Aug. 1.

Cain campaign: Farmers know more about regulations than EPA

hermancain_80x80
By Andrew Duffelmeyer | 11.15.11

The chairman for Herman Cain’s Iowa effort says the campaign “relied more on the word of farmers than Washington regulators” in deciding to run an ad containing claims the Environmental Protection Agency says are false.

Mathis wins, Democrats maintain Senate control

Liz Mathis
By Lynda Waddington | 11.08.11

The Iowa Senate will remain under the control of a slim 26-25 Democratic majority when it reconvenes in January 2012.

Press Release

PR: Nation should work to address veterans’ challenges

By Press Release Reprints | 11.11.11

BRUCE BRALEY RELEASE — As US involvement in Iraq and Afghanistan ends, it’s more important than ever that our nation works to address the challenges faced by the men and women who fought there.

PR: Honoring veterans, help in hiring

By Press Release Reprints | 11.11.11

CHUCK GRASSLEY RELEASE — A difficult job market is challenging the soldiers, sailors and airmen who have protected America’s interests by serving in the Armed Forces.

PR: In honor of America’s veterans

By Press Release Reprints | 11.11.11

TOM LATHAM RELEASE — No one has done more to secure the freedom enjoyed by every single American than our veterans and those currently serving in the armed services.

PR: Honoring and supporting our nation’s veterans

By Press Release Reprints | 11.11.11

DAVE LOEBSACK RELEASE — Veterans Day is an opportunity to reflect on the service of generations of veterans and to honor the sacrifices they and their families have made so that we may live in peace and freedom here at home.

Huckabee, Obama Hold Leads In New Register Poll

By Jay Wagner | 12.31.07 | 9:32 pm

Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mike Huckabee are the favorite candidates of likely Iowa caucus participants, according to a new poll which will be published in the January 1 issue of the Des Moines Register.

Obama, an Illinois senator, leads Hillary Clinton and John Edwards in a tight three-way race. Obama was listed as the choice of 32 percent of likely caucus-goers, Clinton garnered the support of 25 percent of voters and Edwards has the support of 24 percent.

In the Republican race, Huckabee holds a 32 percent to 26 percent lead over rival Mitt Romney. A total of 500 voters from each party were interviewed for the survey, which has a margin of error of about 5 percent.

The Register poll is considered to be a good indicator of the mood of voters because of the large sample of voters who are interviewed. In 2004, it was one of only a handful of polls that predicted a John Kerry victory over Howard Dean.

The latest poll shows that Obama has widened his lead over Clinton and Edwards in part because of the support of first-time caucus goers.

The poll of Republicans showed that John McCain, whose campaign has rebounded in recent days, has moved solidly into third place with support from 13 percent of voters. He is closely followed by Fred Thompson and Ron Paul, both with nine percent of the vote.The poll provides hope for Paul, whose numbers have grown steadily over the past year and whose base of first-time caucus goers and young people are harder to reach because they don’t appear on any previous election rolls and sometimes depend on cellular telephones rather than land lines for all their communications. Cell numbers aren’t easily accessible to pollsters.

The poll provides plenty of interesting fodder for political junkies who hope it will again provide a hint at who will win a tight battle in both parties. For instance:

Comments

  • Duck Soup

    We need a uniter who will bring change I love how Clinton says the Des Moines poll is wrong.  http://blog.washingt…  What a bunch of sour grapes.  How statesmanlike of her.  I am sure we will have more of the same if she is elected.

    We need a unifier, not a whiner.  Obama is the only candidate who members of the other party don’t hate.  He is the only unifier.  United we stand.  Divided we fall. 

    It doesn’t matter what the platform of any politician is, if the other side won’t respect them nothing will get done.  There can be no change.  Pure steamrollering won’t accomplish any change.  Clinton will continue the policies of the Bush/Clinton/Bush/Clinton cycle.  It is too risky to continue these policies because they are not bringing us good results.

  • MomOf4

    If America needed ANOTHER southern state governor… wouldn’t we just continue with the pattern of Clinton and Bush?  Makes no sense to me.  I don’t see the appeal of sticking with the status quo.

  • craigfarmer

    DMR Poll was wrong about GE 2004 If the DMR poll is so good,  How is it that they got the wrong results in Nov. of 2004.  I remember them being different then, as most had Bush up.  Yet, the “they had the caucus right” logic was prevalent.  Their last poll had Kerry +3, the election was Bush +5.  The fact is each election is different. There are different assumptions that must be made.  That they were good in the caucus of 2004, bad for GE of 2004, makes no difference today.  People should use common sense.  For example:  I notice any poll with Obama or Edwards doing better shows no gender gap for Hillary.  Conversely, every time Hillary is doing well there is a gender gap.  On election night we will have to see who’s right? women-men equal for HIllary and the other 2; or Hillary has a lead among women.  I like the fact the  DMR and most other polls have given all of the information.  This is a good process.

  • desmoinesdem

    at least one of these polls is an outlier ARG had Clinton up by 14, DMR has Obama up by 7.

    At least one of those is an outlier, and probably both are, given the number of other polls showing all three candidates within the margin of error.

    Two things jumped out at me regarding the DMR poll. One, it predicts that 60 percent of Democratic caucus-goers will be first-timers. I find that simply impossible to believe. I’ve been working my precinct, where we had 175 at the 2004 caucus. I have found very, very few people who attended in 2004 and do not plan to caucus again.

    If 60 percent of the caucus-goers are new, that would suggest a turnout in my precinct of at least 300 people. Seems impossible.

    Also, the DMR projects that 40 percent of Democratic caucus-goers will be independents who changed their registration and 5 percent will be Republicans who changed their registration. In 2004 those numbers were 19 percent and 1 percent, respectively.

    Obama’s lead comes entirely from an assumed unprecedented turnout of first-time caucus-goers, independents and Republicans. I am not buying it, but we’ll all find out on Thursday night.

  • desmoinesdem

    at least one of these polls is an outlier ARG had Clinton up by 14, DMR has Obama up by 7.

    At least one of those is an outlier, and probably both are, given the number of other polls showing all three candidates within the margin of error.

    Two things jumped out at me regarding the DMR poll. One, it predicts that 60 percent of Democratic caucus-goers will be first-timers. I find that simply impossible to believe. I've been working my precinct, where we had 175 at the 2004 caucus. I have found very, very few people who attended in 2004 and do not plan to caucus again.

    If 60 percent of the caucus-goers are new, that would suggest a turnout in my precinct of at least 300 people. Seems impossible.

    Also, the DMR projects that 40 percent of Democratic caucus-goers will be independents who changed their registration and 5 percent will be Republicans who changed their registration. In 2004 those numbers were 19 percent and 1 percent, respectively.

    Obama's lead comes entirely from an assumed unprecedented turnout of first-time caucus-goers, independents and Republicans. I am not buying it, but we'll all find out on Thursday night.

  • mihan

    As an Edwards partisan no doubt you find fault in the results.

    the poll isn't suggesting that people who caucused in 2004 aren't going to caucus in 2008, but rather a large wave of first-timers will caucus. Believe it or not, at some point people go for the first time…happens every time.

  • craigfarmer

    DMR Poll was wrong about GE 2004 If the DMR poll is so good,  How is it that they got the wrong results in Nov. of 2004.  I remember them being different then, as most had Bush up.  Yet, the “they had the caucus right” logic was prevalent.  Their last poll had Kerry +3, the election was Bush +5.  The fact is each election is different. There are different assumptions that must be made.  That they were good in the caucus of 2004, bad for GE of 2004, makes no difference today.  People should use common sense.  For example:  I notice any poll with Obama or Edwards doing better shows no gender gap for Hillary.  Conversely, every time Hillary is doing well there is a gender gap.  On election night we will have to see who's right? women-men equal for HIllary and the other 2; or Hillary has a lead among women.  I like the fact the  DMR and most other polls have given all of the information.  This is a good process.

  • desmoinesdem

    let's assume turnout is 200,000 Which would be a record and an enormous increase over the 124,000 who caucused in 2004.

    The DMR model suggests that 60 percent of Democratic caucus attendees, or about 120,000, would be people who have never caucused before.

    The same model suggests that 80,000 people would be repeat caucus-goers.

    So you are suggesting that one-third of people who caucused in 2004 will not be there? Sure, some have died, some have moved out of Iowa, and some may be out of town, but I am making voter contacts every day. The vast majority of people who caucused in 2004 will caucus again.

    To believe that 60 percent of caucus-goers will be first-timers, you have to believe in a massive record-breaking turnout.

    It's more realistic to expect turnout will be in the 150,000 range. The DMR is telling us that 90,000 of those people would be people who've never caucused before, and just 60,000 would be people who have attended a caucus before. Not a chance.

  • desmoinesdem

    actually, Bush won Iowa by less than 1 percent About 12,000 votes out of more than 1.5 million cast here.

  • Duck Soup

    We need a uniter who will bring change I love how Clinton says the Des Moines poll is wrong.  http://blog.washingt…  What a bunch of sour grapes.  How statesmanlike of her.  I am sure we will have more of the same if she is elected.

    We need a unifier, not a whiner.  Obama is the only candidate who members of the other party don't hate.  He is the only unifier.  United we stand.  Divided we fall. 

    It doesn't matter what the platform of any politician is, if the other side won't respect them nothing will get done.  There can be no change.  Pure steamrollering won't accomplish any change.  Clinton will continue the policies of the Bush/Clinton/Bush/Clinton cycle.  It is too risky to continue these policies because they are not bringing us good results.

  • MomOf4

    If America needed ANOTHER southern state governor… wouldn't we just continue with the pattern of Clinton and Bush?  Makes no sense to me.  I don't see the appeal of sticking with the status quo.

  • desmoinesdem

    let’s assume turnout is 200,000 Which would be a record and an enormous increase over the 124,000 who caucused in 2004.

    The DMR model suggests that 60 percent of Democratic caucus attendees, or about 120,000, would be people who have never caucused before.

    The same model suggests that 80,000 people would be repeat caucus-goers.

    So you are suggesting that one-third of people who caucused in 2004 will not be there? Sure, some have died, some have moved out of Iowa, and some may be out of town, but I am making voter contacts every day. The vast majority of people who caucused in 2004 will caucus again.

    To believe that 60 percent of caucus-goers will be first-timers, you have to believe in a massive record-breaking turnout.

    It’s more realistic to expect turnout will be in the 150,000 range. The DMR is telling us that 90,000 of those people would be people who’ve never caucused before, and just 60,000 would be people who have attended a caucus before. Not a chance.

  • desmoinesdem

    actually, Bush won Iowa by less than 1 percent About 12,000 votes out of more than 1.5 million cast here.

  • mihan

    As an Edwards partisan no doubt you find fault in the results.

    the poll isn’t suggesting that people who caucused in 2004 aren’t going to caucus in 2008, but rather a large wave of first-timers will caucus. Believe it or not, at some point people go for the first time…happens every time.

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