Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mike Huckabee are the favorite candidates of likely Iowa caucus participants, according to a new poll which will be published in the January 1 issue of the Des Moines Register.
Obama, an Illinois senator, leads Hillary Clinton and John Edwards in a tight three-way race. Obama was listed as the choice of 32 percent of likely caucus-goers, Clinton garnered the support of 25 percent of voters and Edwards has the support of 24 percent.
In the Republican race, Huckabee holds a 32 percent to 26 percent lead over rival Mitt Romney. A total of 500 voters from each party were interviewed for the survey, which has a margin of error of about 5 percent.
The Register poll is considered to be a good indicator of the mood of voters because of the large sample of voters who are interviewed. In 2004, it was one of only a handful of polls that predicted a John Kerry victory over Howard Dean.
The latest poll shows that Obama has widened his lead over Clinton and Edwards in part because of the support of first-time caucus goers.
The poll of Republicans showed that John McCain, whose campaign has rebounded in recent days, has moved solidly into third place with support from 13 percent of voters. He is closely followed by Fred Thompson and Ron Paul, both with nine percent of the vote.The poll provides hope for Paul, whose numbers have grown steadily over the past year and whose base of first-time caucus goers and young people are harder to reach because they don’t appear on any previous election rolls and sometimes depend on cellular telephones rather than land lines for all their communications. Cell numbers aren’t easily accessible to pollsters.
The poll provides plenty of interesting fodder for political junkies who hope it will again provide a hint at who will win a tight battle in both parties. For instance: