Since the Iowa Democratic caucuses are a representative democracy, not a straight one person one vote, not every caucus goer carries equal weight.  Presidential candidates are spending a lot of time in small courthouse towns, because the way the results are counted, the small counties weigh in disproportionately.

An analysis of 2004 caucus attendance shows that, on average statewide, it took just under 41 caucus goers to elect a state delegate equivalent.  The easiest county to elect a delegate was Fremont County, where 22.3 caucus goers translated into a state delegate.

The hardest places to elect delegates, in contrast, were college counties, with Johnson County far ahead of the rest.  In Johnson County, it took 79.2 people to elect a delegate, nearly twice the state average and almost four times the level of Fremont County.Poweshiek County, home of Grinnell, and Story County, site of Iowa State, ranked second and fourth hardest.  Squeezed in at third was Jefferson County, where the meditator community centered around Maharishi International University  led Dennis Kucinich to a near-win, his strongest showing in the nation.  Luther College’s Winneshiek County was also in the top ten.

Those statistics are likely to shift in 2008 with the caucuses occurring over collegiate breaks.  But even the calendar shift doesn’t change the underlying fact: some counties are full of go-to-meeting activists while others have more rank and file voters.

The caucuses take place in a mythical, projected version of a general election voting population, because caucus apportionment is based on votes for the top of the ticket.  In 2004 the counts were based on votes for Al Gore in 2000 and Tom Vilsack in 2002; likewise this year’s counts are based on John Kerry and Chet Culver.  In all four of those contests, Johnson County had the top Democratic percentages in the state.  While those Johnson County voters are the most likely to vote Democratic, they’re also the most likely to spend two or three hours at a meeting.

Another factor that skews caucus representation toward rural counties is the state’s shifting population.  Joining the college counties in the top ten list of hardest counties to elect delegates are high-growth areas in central Iowa — Dallas, Madison, Polk and Warren counties, four of the six fastest growing counties in the state from July 2000 to July 2003 (the Census estimates closest to caucus dates).  Dallas County grew 13.2% in those three years.  But a voter who moved to Dallas County three years before the caucuses won’t count in the county’s presidential vote totals used to calculate delegates, because they voted somewhere else.  A voter who moved in after the gubernatorial election wouldn’t count at all toward the delegate count.

The other high growth counties hurt in caucus apportionment are Johnson County again, plus Benton County.  But Benton’s exurban commuters to  Cedar Rapids and Waterloo were less likely to caucus, as the county ranked 63rd in attendees per delegate.

In contrast, Fremont County, the easiest place to win a delegate, lost 2.3% of its population over the same period.  Yet voters who were no longer in the county still helped its delegate count.  Sac County, the fasted shrinking county in 2000-2003 (-5.1%), ranked number 83 on the caucus goers per delegate list.

This helps explain dynamics like three Democrats showing up within 20 hours in Carroll.  It also means candidates can’t run up the score with big wins in big counties.  But paradoxically, it also mutes the impact of the holiday break in college towns — whether 30 students or 300 show up in Iowa City Precinct 5 (all dorms and frat houses), the same six delegates are at stake.  It also helps a candidate with isolated hotspots of support (like Kucinich in 2004) and hurts candidates with low but evenly spread backing.

Ultimately, the apportionment rules mean candidates have to carefully allocate their resources and fight on all fronts at once, and part of that allocation is making the effort where the most bang for the buck is available — the small towns.

align="right">552
Rank County Attendance (2004) State Delegate Equivalent (2004) Attendees per delegate (2004)
1 Johnson 11169 141 79.21
2 Poweshiek 1396 20 69.80
3 Jefferson 890 13 68.46
4 Story 5674 86 65.98
5 Decatur 437 8 54.63
6 Warren 2453 47 52.19
7 Polk 21821 430 50.75
8 Winneshiek 992 20 49.60
9 Dallas 2111 43 49.09
10 Madison 681 15 45.40
11 Cedar 766 18 42.56
12 Jasper 1868 44 42.45
13 Marshall 1696 40 42.40
14 Davis 330 8 41.25
15 Mahaska 648 16 40.50
16 Woodbury 3255 81 40.19
17 Muscatine 1404 35 40.11
18 Boone 1240 31 40.00
18 Marion 1120 28 40.00
20 Buchanan 908 23 39.48
21 Iowa 592 15 39.47
22 Greene 473 12 39.42
23 Wapello 1615 41 39.39
24 Clay 590 15 39.33
25 Adair 351 9 39.00
26 Bremer 889 23 38.65
27 Palo Alto 424 11 38.55
28 Linn 8716 228 38.23
29 Wayne 228 6 38.00
30 Monroe 303 8 37.88
31 Hardin 715 19 37.63
32 Webster 1531 41 37.34
33 Hamilton 634 17 37.29
34 Louisa 371 10 37.10
35 Washington 701 19 36.89
36 Des Moines 1879 51 36.84
37 Buena Vista 589 16 36.81
38 Appanoose 478 13 36.77
39 Sioux 398 11 36.18
40 Union 464 13 35.69
41 Dubuque 3739 105 35.61
42 Adams 177 5 35.40
43 Kossuth 698 20 34.90
44 Scott 5566 161 34.57
45 Harrison 414 12 34.50
45 Monona 345 10 34.50
47 Keokuk 344 10 34.40
48 Pottawattamie 2331 68 34.28
49 Jackson 718 21 34.19
50 Mills 333 10 33.30
51 Tama 632 19 33.26
52 Clayton 663 20 33.15
53 Ringgold 197 6 32.83
54 Black Hawk 4450 136 32.72
55 Guthrie 392 12 32.67
56 Plymouth 17 32.47
57 Van Buren 194 6 32.33
58 Fayette 708 22 32.18
59 Shelby 289 9 32.11
60 Ida 224 7 32.00
61 Henry 605 19 31.84
62 Cass 381 12 31.75
63 Benton 857 27 31.74
64 Chickasaw 504 16 31.50
65 Page 306 10 30.60
66 Carroll 635 21 30.24
67 Audubon 241 8 30.13
68 Howard 330 11 30.00
69 Franklin 328 11 29.82
70 Grundy 298 10 29.80
71 Wright 386 13 29.69
72 Crawford 355 12 29.58
73 Floyd 525 18 29.17
74 Cerro Gordo 1586 55 28.84
75 Lucas 256 9 28.44
76 O’Brien 281 10 28.10
77 Jones 617 22 28.05
78 Clarke 308 11 28.00
79 Allamakee 360 13 27.69
80 Butler 354 13 27.23
81 Delaware 489 18 27.17
82 Winnebago 323 12 26.92
83 Sac 268 10 26.80
84 Lee 1193 45 26.51
85 Dickinson 477 18 26.50
85 Humboldt 265 10 26.50
85 Pocahontas 212 8 26.50
88 Lyon 158 6 26.33
89 Calhoun 287 11 26.09
90 Osceola 103 4 25.75
91 Montgomery 203 8 25.38
92 Taylor 149 6 24.83
93 Worth 248 10 24.80
94 Mitchell 278 12 23.17
95 Hancock 254 11 23.09
96 Emmet 230 10 23.00
97 Cherokee 295 13 22.69
98 Clinton 1326 59 22.47
99 Fremont 156 7 22.29
Statewide 122193 3000 40.73