Wednesday was a difficult day for The American Independent News Network, which is the larger entity that operates The Iowa Independent. Our chief executive and founder announced two of our sister sites would close and their content would be moved to The American Independent.
A recently introduced bill could have far-reaching impact on the U.S. sugar industry, including American Crystal Sugar, a farmer-owned cooperative that locked out 1,300 Midwest workers on Aug. 1.
The chairman for Herman Cain’s Iowa effort says the campaign “relied more on the word of farmers than Washington regulators” in deciding to run an ad containing claims the Environmental Protection Agency says are false.
The Iowa Senate will remain under the control of a slim 26-25 Democratic majority when it reconvenes in January 2012.
The Republican race in Iowa remains as unpredictable as it was a month ago. Gov. Mike Huckabee surged, waned, and has steadied his position slightly ahead of Gov. Mitt Romney. Former Sen. Fred Thompson, who was expected to move up after his recent swing through the state and his high-profile Iowa endorsements, has failed to gain much steam. Sen. John McCain, who was close to writing Iowa off a month ago, has received newspaper endorsements and renewed attention to coincide with his improving chances nationally.
Today, Iowa Independent releases its final round of power rankings, designed to answer the question, “If the caucuses were held tonight, what would be the results?” The rankings are derived from impressions we received from activists, campaign officials, seasoned political observers, and rank-and-file caucus-goers, but at the most basic level, they are based on the gut feelings and instincts of our writers, who have watched the race unfold here from the beginning.
A lot can change in six days, and we expect that it will. But if the caucuses were held tonight, this is how we think they would turn out:
First Place
Mike Huckabee — No doubt about it, Huckabee has firmed up the support of social conservatives and his nice guy routine resonates with enough people that he would likely win Iowa if the caucuses were held tonight. He drew 400 people to a rally in Orange City on the Saturday before Christmas and another 200 people in Sheldon the same day. He seems to generate more enthusiasm than any other candidates in the Republican field.
Second Place
Mitt Romney — It’s time to see if Romney’s experienced, well-paid staff knows how to close the deal. Romney’s poll numbers have rebounded in the state in recent days and the questions his surrogates have raised about Huckabee’s years as governor in Arkansas continue to sway small numbers of voters. But it remains to be seen if his strong organization will give him an edge over Huckabee, whose supporters are less organized but perhaps greater in number.
Third Place
Ron Paul – Rival campaigns are beginning to nervously speculate that Paul will finish in the top three on January 3. Paul broke double digits in at least two polls for the first time this week and he seems particularly strong in areas of the state where the media has less of an impact on political deliberations — especially in rural northwest and southern Iowa. Check out a Ron Paul supporters’ websites and you’ll see detailed discussions about caucus rules and strategy. The Paulites are more ready for caucus night than most observers realize.Fourth Place
John McCain — Upward Momentum — Undecided Republicans are breaking toward McCain more than most would have expected, and the additional attention he’s receiving in New Hampshire and South Carolina is translating to more coverage in Iowa in the final days of the campaign. While newspaper endorsements may not make much of a difference in the GOP race, the surprising number of Iowa newspapers who have endorsed the Arizona senator have at least made more caucus-goers receptive to his message. And recent news from Pakistan gives him an opportunity to highlight the importance of national security experience.
Fifth Place
Fred Thompson — We can again report that we’re hearing reports that a newly energized Thompson has hit the campaign trail in Iowa. But we’ve said that so many times in the past six months that we don’t necessarily believe it ourselves. Still, with Rep. Steve King and prominent social conservative Bill Salier on the campaign trail for him, it’s hard to believe he hasn’t gained some traction in the state.
Sixth Place
Rudy Giuliani — Who would have believed that “America’s Mayor” would have so much trouble coalescing support in Iowa? Perhaps Florida will be better for him.
Seventh Place
Duncan Hunter
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