Over the past week, the Democratic race has become even more difficult to predict.  Sen. Hillary Clinton and several of her surrogates campaigned everywhere in the state this week, and Sen. Barack Obama and former Sen. John Edwards both spent significant time here, as well.  Clinton has attacked Obama, and Obama has responded.  Edwards, who was probably the most critical of his fellow candidates over the summer and fall, is now finding himself largely above the fray.  If nothing else, we are confident that Iowa’s Democratic caucuses will come down to the wire.

Below, we seek to answer (for the fifth time) the question, “If the Democratic caucuses were held tonight, how would they turn out?”  We based these rankings on impressions we received from activists, staff, and caucus-goers across the state and, at the most basic level, gut feelings and instincts.  We hope only that our work provides one additional point of reference to readers who are interested in the perspective of Iowans who have watched the race unfold here for the past year.
First Place

(tie) John Edwards — Stories about Edwards’s “surge” seem slightly overblown to us, simply because no candidate appears to be surging right now.  But Edwards’s organizational superiority, along with his refocused, optimistic message, put him back in the running for a first place finish.  As Sen. Hillary Clinton attacks Sen. Barack Obama, Edwards no longer appears positioned as the attack dog of the race.

(tie) Barack Obama – Although the back-and-forth between Obama and Clinton may serve Obama’s interests more than Clinton’s, it likely hurts both candidates to some degree.  Obama can build larger crowds than any other candidate, which persuades us that he could win the caucuses, but his organization remains weaker than Edwards’s.  As things stand, the caucuses appear to be a contest between Edwards supporters’ organization and Obama supporters’ enthusiasm.  Which candidate wins the most second-choice support may also help to decide the winner.

Third Place

Hillary Clinton — Clinton’s “Every County Counts” tour drew small crowds across the state for several days straight, but press coverage proved that having so many surrogates campaigning all at once can be a liability.  On each day of the tour, it seemed that one Clinton surrogate or another was in the news for an unfair attack or misstatement.  Clinton’s organization shows real potential, but the characterization of her as the most negative Democratic candidate in the race seems to be sticking.

Fourth Place

Joe Biden – Biden remains in the fourth place spot because of his constant campaigning.  Although his events tend to draw relatively small audiences, he does quite well in that context, and he continues to pick up supporters one by one.  And his core constituency is very likely to caucus.

Fifth Place

Bill Richardson — Richardson’s new TV ad, which is a “contrast” ad if not an “attack,” displays his commitment to Iraq as the most important issue of the election.  But we question whether now is the time for subtle negativity.  Richardson’s staff is talented, but he remains largely unable to recruit traditional activists in many important precincts across the state.  His focus on rural precincts, where low turnout may help him to remain viable more often, is interesting, but winning the caucuses without strong activist support in many of the key Democratic precincts is a difficult task.

Sixth Place

Chris Dodd — Dodd is well-liked, but he still seems unable to gain traction as a presidential candidate.  He will campaign here non-stop for the duration of the caucuses, but as things stand, we think he would finish a disappointing sixth place.

Seventh Place

Dennis Kucinich — Kucinich has not spent time or resources in Iowa for some time.

Eighth Place

Mike Gravel