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This story is a collaborative effort between Iowa Independent and Huffington Post’s OffTheBus Project. As part of our investigation, OffTheBus members spoke with more than a third of Iowa’s Republican county chairs. The team was coordinated by Theresa Weathers and Steven Greenberg, and interviews were conducted by Kirsten Anderson, Mariangela Anzalone, Robin Carpenter, Adam Dancy, Kim Farris, Mayhill Fowler, Melissa Hapke, Saba Kennedy-Washington, Chris Nelson, Randall Tigue, John Tomasic, P.S. Peete, Heidi Pickman, Constance Sere.
Throughout most of 2007, Gov. Mitt Romney was the candidate to beat in Iowa’s GOP caucuses. Despite his recent downturn, he remains tied for the top position here with Gov. Mike Huckabee.
But Romney was not always the dominant force in Iowa that he became. In mid 2005, polls indicated that Romney’s support was in the single digits, within the margin of error of zero. He was virtually unknown.
So he started building relationships on the ground here early, and it paid off. In a series of interviews with 37 of Iowa’s 99 Republican county chairs conducted by Huffington Post’s OffTheBus project as part of a collaboration with Iowa Independent, it was revealed that Romney made quite an impression on key GOP activists across the state before some other candidates were even paying attention.“The Romney campaign did an event in Fall 2005,” said Mitch Hambleton, chair of the Republican Party in Dallas County, which contains many of Des Moines’s heavily Republican suburbs. Romney was only halfway through his second term as Governor of Massachusetts when he gave the keynote speech at the Dallas County GOP’s annual steak fry fundraiser. “He was just getting … established in the state. I had the opportunity to meet him and share views,” said Hambleton.
Romney did not announce his candidacy until February 2007 — nearly a year and a half after the steak fry — but that did not stop him from building the beginnings of his Iowa organization. “We saw Romney a whole lot. He was in Iowa quite a bit from 2005 to present day,” said Hambleton.
Steve Schmitt, chair of the Blackhawk County GOP, said Romney’s campaign first began courting him in the spring of 2006, about a year before he declared his candidacy. “If I remember correctly, the first conversation that I had [with a presidential campaign] was with the Romney campaign,” he said. “[Romney] actually came and spoke to our county convention, which would have been in February, March of 06.”
But Romney’s strategy did not rely entirely on personal visits. He also made strategic donations to local Republicans across the state in the same timeframe, and he developed a bit of a reputation for it. One county chair, Kelly O’Brien from O’Brien County, said the Massachusetts Governor sent checks to everyone he could reach.
Ann Trimble-Ray, who chairs the GOP in Sac County, said “Gov. Mitt Romney’s Commonwealth PAC was the first [presidential candidate's] organization to contact our county — with a $250 donation in 2006. The contact was via mail and they had no requirements for the donation they sent to build the party.”
Romney’s early start was only part of his Iowa strategy. Since the beginning of the year, his campaign has been more persistent than other campaigns in its outreach efforts, according to many of the county chairs we spoke to. “Romney has been the most aggressive courting me,” said John Markham, Dubuque County GOP chair.
Local Republican politicians and activists took notice of Romney’s generosity with his time and money, not to mention his persistence. For his efforts, Romney now boasts endorsements from 18 of Iowa’s state legislators — twice as many as any of his Republican rivals.
That Romney maintained a significant lead in Iowa through the summer and fall of 2007 is a testament to the strength of his institutional support, but his recent trend downwards should come as little surprise. His opponents — most notably, Huckabee — have ramped up their efforts here, stumping and shaking hands in all corners of the state. And, more importantly, GOP caucus-goers have begun paying closer attention.
Although goodwill and a long list of endorsements from local activists may be enough to earn soft support from Iowans six months before the caucuses, in the end, caucus-goers are fickle. Each candidate gets a second look, and casual supporters switch candidates repeatedly. Now that Romney is not the only game in town, the race is much closer.
Romney’s early start gave him a chance to win Iowa that he may not have had at all otherwise, but it will not assure him a victory. Now that he has a solid organization of key activists in place, he must conscientiously court the caucus-goers who weren’t paying attention in October 2005 — or in February 2007, for that matter — if he hopes to succeed on caucus night.
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