This is a collaborative reporting effort between the Huffington Post’s OffTheBus and the Iowa Independent. Full byline is at the end of this piece.

Speculation that widespread “Bush fatigue” may translate into a tsunami of Democratic turnout for the Iowa caucus seems to be misplaced.  A joint investigation by HuffPost’s OfftheBus and the Iowa Independent suggests that turnout in this year’s caucuses is unlikely to be much higher than it was in 2004.  And while frustration with the Bush administration over a range of issues — from the war in Iraq to torture, the economy and the environment, among others — may be a motivating factor for the Democratic Party faithful, it may not be enough to deliver a significant increase in turnout on Jan. 3.

Interviews with Democratic campaign staff, Democratic county party chairs and several veteran political observers further suggest that, as in previous years, the actual turnout on caucus night will depend much more on the efficiency of respective campaign field operations and on serendipity rather than on a collective reaction to the incumbent administration.

Even those who predict higher voter turnout acknowledge that factors such as the proximity of the caucus date to the holiday season, the college football championships taking place the same night, a displaced student population, and the inherently inconvenient and potentially intimidating nature of caucusing — as opposed to balloting — could easily suppress turnout among an otherwise motivated electorate.  While Bush fatigue may drive turnout, it will not be by much.While some 125,000 Democrats braved the cold Iowa weather to caucus in 2004 (a sharp increase from the 2000 Democratic caucuses), David Redlawsk, University of Iowa political science professor and the Acting Johnson County Democratic Chairman in 2004, says he does not expect that number to increase this year and believes that Iowa may have already reached its turnout peak. “I don’t know if we will have more people (in the Johnson County Democratic Caucus).  In Johnson, we tripled our turnout from 2000.  In 2004, we had 11,000 people.  There are practical limits.  We can’t sign all the people in; there’s no place to put them.  2004 for Democrats here was a pretty intense time.  And there was already a substantial student caucus in 2004,” states Redlawsk.

Bruce Gronbeck, who teaches communications studies at Iowa, also predicts that Democratic caucus turnout will remain about the same as it was in 2004.  Among the factors that may serve to keep turnout similar to 2004, he notes that it is unclear what effect the holiday season might have on the campaigns’ voter outreach tactics.  “It’s an absolute unknown,” he says.

But other seasoned observers of Iowa politics do predict there could be slight increases in turnout based on two factors: the sheer quantity of resources poured into the state this year and widespread feelings of “Bush fatigue” among the electorate.

The most dramatic prediction came from John Norris, a mastermind behind Sen. John Kerry’s surprise Iowa victory in 2004 who later served as Kerry’s national field director during the general election. He predicts a turnout of between 135,000 and 150,000 Democratic caucus-goers, an increase of between 8 and 20 percent. “I think there’s more candidates in the race, certainly more resources,” he says.  With several more candidates pouring millions more dollars into the state this year than in 2004, “there should be at least a slight increase in turnout.  Candidates are well-funded, particularly Obama and Clinton, and even Edwards has dedicated the lion’s share of his resources to Iowa.  A lot of candidates have put in a lot of personal time.”

Julie Andreef Jensen, who worked for Kerry in 2004 and currently oversees Sen. Chris Dodd’s field program here, agrees that turnout might increase because of how many campaigns are recruiting supporters. 

But the campaigns only have so much influence in increasing turnout.  Experts cited the date of the caucus as the greatest hurdle.

Jan. 3 is very close to the holidays, when many Iowans leave town, and when those who remain are not focused on politics.  “With the early caucus date, a lot of people will still be away from home,” says Brian Kingsolver, chair of the Fremont County Democrats.

Others note that the Orange Bowl, a major college football game, is set to take place the same evening as the caucuses.  No one is certain whether this would have much of an impact, largely because the teams who will participate in the game are still unknown. [Editor's note: It has since been revealed that the teams participating will be Kansas and Virginia Tech.  How this might affect turnout remains unclear.]

Also unknown is how the early date will affect college student turnout.  Wayne Moyer, Rosenfield professor at Grinnell College in the rural center of the state, says the earlier caucus date “takes the students out of the caucus,” although he notes that many Grinnell students plan to return to campus from out of state for the night of Jan. 3.  The college will open its athletic complex that night for students wishing to camp out, but, like most other colleges across the state, it will not reopen its dormitories for students wishing to stay there.

In addition to problems caused by the uncharacteristically early caucus date, activists recognize that the process of caucusing itself tends to suppress turnout.  “The caucus is not for the faint of heart,” says Jennifer Lunsford, who chairs the Jefferson County Democrats.

Among the reasons, Lunsford says, “Everyone can see who you’re voting for.”

In Clinton County, Democratic County Chair Jean Pardee agrees.  “It is harder to get people to caucus than vote,” she said.  “Voting takes only a few minutes and can be done absentee whereas the caucus takes 2-3 hours in often questionable weather,” she adds.  It “can ‘pit’ one neighbor against another,” as well, although most participants are good natured and friendly.

While “Bush fatigue” may not be quite the factor some had thought in increasing turnout, it may be at the forefront of the minds of those Iowans who do attend caucuses.

Winnebago County Democratic Chair John Ralls says he believes people will caucus out of a desire for change.  They “don’t want to let the bad thing happen.”

In Story County, Democratic Chair Jan Bauer has noticed a similar phenomenon.  “People are just fed up” with Bush, she observed.

Some Democratic activists even predict that Independent and Republican voters may re-register as Democrats to participate in the caucuses. “I believe we’ll see many more non-party and Republicans signing up as Democrats for our caucuses because of Bush,” says Pardee.

Teresa Wolff, who chairs the Woodbury County Democrats, says her e-mail inbox is packed with questions from non-Democrats asking how they can change parties before the caucuses.

Whether Republicans and Independents opt to change their party status in order to caucus for a Democratic candidate may not make much of a difference in actual voter turnout. With little time to go before Jan. 3, it remains doubtful that legions of inexperienced Republican and Independent participants will be properly schooled in the art of caucusing and far less likely they’ll turn out en masse.

Despite a widespread desire for change among Iowa’s electorate, those hoping for a dramatic increase in turnout in this year’s Democratic caucuses are likely to be disappointed come Jan. 4.

Reported by Paul Abrams, Kristen Anderson, Christian Avard, Jennifer Engevik, Steven Greenberg, Brian Fairbanks, Mayhill Fowler, Melissa Hapke, Cheryl Lynn Helm, Kati Hollis, Nisha Jani, JoAnne Lindsley, Barbara Mazor, Andre Noren, Kelly Nuxoll, Heather Pritchard, Neil Rodriguez, Sandra Thompson, James Trimarco