Last week, Iowa Independent released the first edition of our Democratic Power Rankings, attempting to answer the question, “If the Iowa caucuses were held tonight, how would the candidates place?” Today, we unveil our rankings for the Republican field.
Although the Republican caucuses are somewhat simpler (and therefore easier to participate in) than the Democratic version, organization is still the single most important factor in a candidate’s success. Below, we rank the GOP candidates based on our sense of the strengths of their organizations, the depth of their support, the likelihood that their supporters will caucus, and other intangible factors that we consider important for caucus success. And again, we must emphasize that although we speak with activists and rank-and-file caucus-goers as we compile these lists, they are based, at their core, on gut instincts and guesses. Our hope is that as our readers watch the candidates fluctuate in the polls, they will keep these rankings in mind as one additional point of reference, for what they are worth.If the GOP caucuses were held tonight, this is how we think they would turn out:
- Mitt Romney — Romney has put by far the most resources into building an organization in Iowa, and so far it has paid off. His large staff and well-connected network of supporters keep him on top of what is otherwise a very volatile field. Although other candidates are showing signs of strength, Romney will not give up the top spot without a big fight.
- Mike Huckabee — Huckabee appears to be the flavor of the month. Although he failed to capitalize on his surprise 2nd place finish at the Ames Straw Poll to the degree many expected he would and turned in lackluster third quarter fund raising numbers, the winds seemed to shift a few weeks ago, and Huckabee started getting buzz. Despite high profile evangelical endorsements going to other candidates, one gets the sense that rank-and-file social conservatives in Iowa are breaking his way. And although his Iowa staff is tiny in comparison to Romney’s, it is led by talented heavy-hitters at the top.
- Rudy Giuliani — Reports of Giuliani’s reasonably high poll numbers in Iowa are generally followed by statements about what might happen “when Iowa Republicans find out about the real Giuliani.” So far, either most GOP caucus-goers have not found out about the former mayor’s personal history, or fewer than expected are turned off by it. Although one might expect Giuliani to slip farther down the list by January 3, we expect he would finish third if the caucuses were held tonight.
- Ron Paul — Paul’s support comes from the least likely corners of Iowa, making it very difficult to measure with “likely voter” polls. Cynics expect his unlikely coalition to stay home on caucus night, and they might; but if the depth of a candidate’s support is one measure of his likely success in the caucuses, Paul has the rest of the field beat. While Huckabee, Romney, Giuliani, former Sen. Fred Thompson, and Sen. John McCain appear to swap supporters every few weeks, Paul’s fans remain squarely in his corner. And there is the oft-ignored fact that polls show that a majority of likely GOP caucus-goers favor withdrawal from Iraq within six months, which many analysts are hard-pressed to explain.
- Fred Thompson — Before Huckabee became the flavor of the month, there was Thompson, who entered the presidential race late amid significant fanfare. But entering late makes building an organization difficult, and so far Thompson does not seem to have spent enough time relationship-building with activists to have put an infrastructure in place. His national endorsement from Right to Life showed a glimmer of promise for his Iowa operation, but hopes were dashed when Iowa Right to Life, which could have given the former senator the organizational jump he needed to catch up to his opponents, decided to remain neutral.
- John McCain — Having failed to captivate Iowa’s social conservatives with McCain version 2.0, the Arizona senator has reverted back to the straight-talking McCain 1.0 — the candidate who ended up skipping Iowa entirely in 2000. What remains of his organization here appears to be spread too thin, and his willingness to speak his mind about ethanol and immigration, among other subjects, has not won him many friends.
- Tom Tancredo — Tancredo has very small pockets of deep support across the state, but, as a self-admitted one-issue candidate, he does not even seem interested in broadening his appeal. While his ‘explosive’ new TV ad may have been a bold enough strategy to land him on cable news for a few days, we wonder how much money he actually put behind the buy, because we have spoken to very few GOP caucus-goers who have seen it.
- Duncan Hunter — Hunter has no real organization in place here, and he has spent very little time campaigning to build one.
- John Cox — Free potato chips may win Cox a few votes, but he has no institutional support and very little name recognition.
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