Could the first major issue of the 2010 Republican gubernatorial primary be unfolding in the pages of the Iowa Independent?  As best we can tell, Jason Hancock’s just-published interview with Bob Vander Plaats marks the first time one serious contender for the GOP nomination directly criticized another in the context of the gubernatorial race, and it was on the subject of the gas tax increase proposal currently circulating the capitol.

So in the spirit of overzealousness that tends to enthrall political junkies everywhere when there isn’t a real campaign to watch, I decided that I should probably read as much into the whole thing as I could.

The basics

Vander Plaats opposes a gas tax increase like Gov. Chet Culver.

Secretary of Agriculture Bill Northey, who is seen as another serious Republican candidate for governor, told the Iowa Independent that he was open to the idea, which has been supported by traditionally conservative groups like the Farm Bureau.

“I think generally with [agriculture] folks, a pay-as-you-go gas tax makes the most sense to address those road concerns,” Northey said. “I think everyone has been looking around for other options and there is no magic pot of money sitting around to do those things.”

Vander Plaats said he was surprised that some conservative groups were supportive of a gas tax increase, and he described it as a “real problem” within the Republican party:

“What I mean is these groups and individuals are so caught up in the ‘system think’ that they need to get outside the box and think of a different way,” he said, later adding: “Iowans have had it with the increased taxes. They’ve had it with the increase in government. They’ve had it with having their lives controlled. They want someone who will lead the state of Iowa, not just grow the size of government.”

How will the issue play itself out?

Bob Vander Plaats

Bob Vander Plaats

While the merits of a gas tax increase are debatable on policy grounds, the political realities of advocating any kind of tax increase at the beginning of a Republican primary are pretty easy to grasp.  Republican primaries tend to penalize candidates who want to raise taxes, and they tend to reward candidates who want to lower taxes.

Let’s trudge a little deeper into the weeds.

If Northey decides to run for governor in 2010, he could probably survive his openness to a gas tax increase if it stays out of the Iowa Code and remains an abstract idea.  Once he gets onto the campaign trail, he could back away from supporting a gas tax increase in the near future, and Vander Plaats would not be able to use the issue to any significant advantage.

Bill Northey

Bill Northey

The more interesting scenario would happen if a gas tax increase passes this year.  Northey would have trouble coming out against this particular increase after his expression of openness to it just last week, and he would be caught between a rock and the Farm Bureau if he tried.

With a gas tax increase on the books, Northey could lose support among anti-tax fiscal conservatives. Northey will probably need to win over the more fiscally conservative wing of his party if he hopes to defeat Vander Plaats, whose strongest support will likely come from the socially conservative wing of the GOP.

Now, put yourself in Culver’s shoes: Northey is a popular Secretary of Agriculture, and he won his position by an impressive margin in 2006, a year that saw significant gains for Democratic candidates everywhere else on the ballot.  Vander Plaats is a serious candidate, but he has no government experience and a history of losing campaigns.  Whom would you rather face in the 2010 general election?

Culver says he opposes an increase in the gas tax, but he has not explicitly threatened a veto yet.  Some lawmakers on both sides of the aisle have signaled support for the idea, and bills have been introduced in both chambers of the state legislature.  If a bill ends up on the governor’s desk for a signature, the chance to hang an albatross around Northey’s neck — one that could knock him out of the GOP primary and stall his burgeoning political career — could prove tempting.

I’m not saying it’ll happen, but who knows?