After weeks of rumors, meetings and deal making, party insiders say the race to be chair of the Republican Party of Iowa has essentially come down to two men — Danny Carroll and Matt Strawn.

Matt Strawn, left, and Danny Carroll.

Matt Strawn, left, and Danny Carroll.

Eight men were originally considered in the running. But with the recent announcement by state GOP Treasurer Gopal Krishna that he isn’t interested in the position and former Cedar Rapids Mayor Paul Pate that he is pursuing the co-chair position, several members of the Republican State Central Committee told the Iowa Independent that smart money is on Carroll or Strawn, with a slight advantage to Strawn.

The race for party chair will have long-term ramifications for the state GOP. With a 2010 gubernatorial contest already starting to gear up and the next legislature in charge of redistricting, the Republican Party of Iowa must right its ship after two election cycles of defeat if it has any chance to retake the reins of power in the state.

Carroll is the consummate party insider. He served six terms in the Iowa House, rising in the ranks all the way to Speaker Pro Tempore. He sits on the board of the Iowa Family Policy Center, a conservative group with a lot of influence on the state’s Republican Party, and was a champion of social conservative issues during his time in the legislature, including a constitutional ban on same-sex marriage.

Strawn is co-owner of the Iowa Barnstormers Arena Football team and a former congressional aide in Washington, D.C. He is also the former state director for John McCain’s presidential campaign in Iowa. While he has a long history in politics, he is relatively new to most Iowa Republicans.  In an attempt to show how he is best suited to bring the party into the 21st Century technologically, Strawn made the announcement that he was running for chair on YouTube and launched his own campaign blog.

The two have few differences of opinion on the future of the party and both have focused on party mechanics as opposed to political issues in their attempt to sway Central Committee members. Both see technology as key to the GOP’s success and admit the party has been lacking in that department for many years. Both emphasize improving fundraising and healing the divides that have arisen after two consecutive elections cycles of GOP losses.

Where the two differ is in style. While Carroll went a more traditional route to the chairmanship, meeting with SCC members and party activits and working behind the scenes, Strawn toured the state as part of his “Pizza and Politics” events. Where Strawn hoped to build a grassroots following, Carroll already succeeded, evidenced by a large group of supporters at a recent candidate forum sporting “Danny” T-shirts.

Of the Central Committee members interviewed by the Iowa Independent, each said they would be happy with either Carroll or Strawn. But each also said both candidates have their down sides.

For Carroll, it’s the fact that he has lost two straight elections, the first as an incumbent in 2006 and again as a challenger in 2008. Some also said he really doesn’t represent the kind of change the party needs right now.

For Strawn, several members said he hasn’t been involved in state politics until deciding to run for chair and his previous experience in McCain’s Iowa campaign didn’t end very successfully. Strawn was part of the crew that was let go last summer when the Arizona senator’s campaign was in chaos.

When the Central Committee meets tomorrow there are still other candidates in the running – Andy Cable, chair of the Hardin County GOP; Christopher Reed, the 2008 candidate for Senate; Matt Randall, a Central Committee member; Linda Harrington, who worked for John Cox’s presidential campaign in Iowa; and Pate, despite his recent statements of being interested in the co-chair position.

The Central Committee will also chose a co-chair, treasurer and secretary Saturday. Pate and current co-chair Leon Mosely have both said they wish to serve in the position. Incumbent Treasurer Gopal Krishna and Secretary Lisa Smith are the only declared candidates for their positions.